Key takeaways:
- Flutterwave CEO, Olugbenga Agboola has revealed that the $3 billion startup is pressing ahead with plans to go public
- Agboola told Bloomberg that going public is important for Flutterwave to reach its targets.
- With a $370 million stake in the fintech, Agboola could be on his way to becoming a billionaire in the event of an initial public offering (IPO).
“There’s some kind of customers we’ll attract when we are public. The large global clients need you to have the same level of compliance and level of global view that they have.”
However, Agboola has been embroiled in controversies since last year, such as accusations of its refusal to honour former employees’ stock rights and staff harassment. Agboola said these cases are “very isolated,” and will not affect an IPO.
Earlier this month, the company rolled out its remittance solution, Send App to Canada and the US, allowing people in those countries to send money to Africa quickly.
Although Agboola indicated that a Flutterwave IPO is inevitable, he also admitted that “the markets aren’t great right now."
Will Flutterwave really go ahead with IPO plans?
This is not the first time Flutterwave has teased going public. It first revealed IPO intentions officially in August 2022. According to a report, the IPO will be rolled out on the Nasdaq stock exchange and will be used to expand the fintech's operation in existing markets and expand into new African markets.
However, it didn't go ahead with the IPO.
While Flutterwave is reiterating its IPO plans, it has not shared figures that indicate its growth and readiness for a public offering.
It declined to share an annual increase in total revenue with Bloomberg but said the payment processing side of the business increased 23-fold in the first half of 2023.
Although Flutterwave has been vague in its plans to go public, there are indicators that an IPO could be imminent. For example, the participation of a cross-over investor —cross-over investors often invest in growing businesses right before they IPO — like Whale Rock Capital in its last funding round.
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While Flutterwave hasn't given a specific date for its IPO, only time will tell if it'll eventually go through with it.
Can a Flutterwave IPO make Agboola a US dollar billionaire?
According to PitchBook, The value of Agboola's stake in Flutterwave was estimated to be over $370 million as of the fintech's last funding round in 2022.
Some people believe Agboola's stake in Flutterwave could make him a billionaire if Flutterwave goes public.
While it is difficult to predict what will happen if Flutterwave goes public, it is unlikely that Agboola's $370 million will make him a billionaire.
The value of his stake in the company after an IPO will be determined by the value of Flutterwave after the IPO.
How do we determine Flutterwave's value in the event of an IPO?
The value of a company after an IPO depends on many many factors such as sentiment, demand and supply of shares, and market conditions.
However, one way to make an educated guess is to use the market capitalisation formula, which is the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the price of shares after an IPO.
This formula will help us arrive at a post-IPO valuation by assuming that the number of outstanding shares in Flutterwave remains the same before and after the IPO.
Since Flutterwave hasn't gone public, the number of outstanding shares isn't readily available, but by dividing its current valuation by its share price, we can get an idea of what the number of outstanding shares is.
According to Notice.co, a website that sources private market data from regulatory filings, media, and an international collective of brokers, investors and employees, Flutterwave's current share price is $29.
Given that Flutterwave's current valuation is $3 billion, this means Flutterwave's outstanding shares are 103 million.
It is important to note that the share price of a private company isn't always accurate if it is not coming directly from the company.
Now that we have the number of outstanding shares, we need to make yet another assumption that Flutterwave's IPO will be successful and its share price will go up by 31% just like another African startup, Jumia, after its IPO.
This means Flutterwave's share price will go from $29 pre-IPO to $38. Flutterwave's post-IPO valuation, is therefore $3.9 billion.
Agboola's stake after post-IPO valuation of $3.9 billion
Agboola's $370 million stake represents 12.33% of Flutterwave. His stake percentage multiplied by Flutterwave's $3.9 billion valuation means that his post-IPO stake will become $480.8 million.
While these calculations are riddled with several assumptions, it is a relatively good-case scenario. Agboola would need to own a higher percentage of Flutterwave to join the ranks of Africa's tech billionaires.
Disclaimer: These calculations are based on figures from PitchBook and Notice.co, which Techpoint Africa cannot independently verify.
